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UK's updated SEC Tournament scenarios (as of March 8)

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After Thursday's loss to Georgia, Kentucky no longer controls its own fate in the race for the No. 2 seed in the Southeastern Conference Tournament. However, the Wildcats put themselves in good position for the second seed with a win vs. Florida on Saturday.

In fact, there are only two ways in which UK would not be the No. 2 seed if the Cats win Saturday of the eight possible outcomes. The two seed, however, is out of the question with a loss to Florida. Here are all the scenarios heading into the final weekend of the regular season.

1. UK defeats Florida.

  • If Missouri beats Tennessee, Ole Miss beats LSU and Alabama defeats Georgia, UK wins the four-way tiebreaker and receives the No. 2 seed based on its 2-1 record against Missouri, Ole Miss and Alabama. Missouri and Ole Miss are both 2-2 against tied teams in that case, Alabama 1-2.
  • If Missouri and Ole Miss win, UK wins the three-way tiebreaker for the No. 2 seed with a 2-0 record against tied teams.
  • If only Missouri and Alabama win, all three teams would have identical 1-1 records against tied teams. Missouri and Kentucky would both have 1-1 records against No. 1 seed Florida, while Alabama is 0-1. Missouri would then win the tiebreaker for the No. 2 seed with a 1-0 record against No. 4 seed Alabama. UK would be the No. 3 seed.
  • If only Ole Miss and Alabama win, all three teams would have identical 1-1 records against tied teams. UK would be the only team of the three with a win over Florida, so UK would win the tiebreaker for the No. 2 seed.
  • If only Missouri wins, UK wins the two-way tiebreaker for the No. 2 seed with a 1-0 head-to-head record against Missouri.
  • If only Ole Miss wins, UK wins the two-way tiebreaker for the No. 2 seed with a 1-0 head-to-head record against Ole Miss.
  • If only Alabama wins, Alabama wins the two-way tiebreaker for the No. 2 seed with a 1-0 head-to-head record against UK. UK would receive the No. 3 seed.
  • If Missouri, Ole Miss and Alabama all lose, UK finishes second outright and receives the No. 2 seed.

2. UK loses to Florida.
  • Florida wins SEC title.
  • If Missouri beats Tennessee, Ole Miss beats LSU and Alabama defeats Georgia, UK receives the No. 5 seed.
  • If only Missouri and Ole Miss win, Alabama wins the two-team tiebreaker for the No. 4 seed based on a 1-0 record against UK. UK would receive the No. 5 seed.
  • If only Missouri and Alabama win, UK wins the two-team tiebreaker for the No. 4 seed based on a 1-0 record against Ole Miss.
  • If only Ole Miss and Alabama win, a three-team tiebreaker between UK, Tennessee and Missouri would be decided based on combined records against tied teams. UK and Tennessee would both be 2-1 and Missouri 0-2, so it would return to a head-to-head tiebreaker between UK and Tennessee. The two teams split the season series, so Tennessee would receive the No. 4 seed based on a 1-1 record against Florida. UK would be the No. 5 seed.
  • If only Missouri wins, UK, Ole Miss and Alabama would be tied at No. 3. Each team in the tiebreaker has a 1-1 record against other teams in the tiebreaker and all three teams are winless against Florida, so seeding would be determined based on records against No. 2 seed Missouri. UK would win the tiebreaker for the No. 3 seed based on its 1-0 record against the Tigers.
  • If only Ole Miss wins, Tennessee wins the four-team tiebreaker for the No. 3 seed based on a 3-2 record against UK, Missouri and Alabama. Alabama and UK would both be 2-2 against tied teams and Alabama would then win a head-to-head tiebreaker with UK for the No. 4 seed. UK would receive the No. 5 seed.
  • If only Alabama wins, UK, Tennessee, Missouri and Ole Miss would be tied for the No. 3 seed. UK would win the tiebreaker based on a 3-1 record against tied teams.
  • If Missouri, Ole Miss and Alabama all lose, there would be a five-way tie for the No. 2 seed. Ole Miss would win the tiebreaker with a 4-2 record against tied teams. UK would receive the No. 3 seed based on a 3-2 record against tied teams.


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2 Comments

If I understand this correctly, if UK loses to FL, it needs LSU to beat Ole Miss. All other scenarios place UK as 5th seed.

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Recent Comments

  • Guy Ramsey: I did not notice until you mentioned it, but that's correct. If LSU beats Ole Miss, UK clinches a top-four read more
  • Sam: If I understand this correctly, if UK loses to FL, it needs LSU to beat Ole Miss. All other scenarios read more